The final leg of the PGA Florida swing ends at Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship. Atypical of Florida courses, Innisbrook has elevation changes, bottleneck fairways and a certain resemblance to a dogleg on almost every hole. Played as a “less than pilot” course, there are five long par-3s and four par-5s that have either a dogleg or even a double dogleg. With this, I target players who can play positional golf.
Here are three players who make solid Top 40 or Top 20 options who can fight for an outright win.
Top 20 +225
Top 10 +375
Top 5 +750
To earn +5000
The North Carolina native lacks the impressive summary of results you’re looking for when betting on a player, with only nine top 10s under his belt. However, Griffin plays good golf. In seven tournaments this year, he has six top-40 finishes, including a T12 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Griffin’s ball-striking has been inconsistent lately, losing shots off the tee in two of his last four events while dropping more than four shots with his irons in the Arnold Palmer Tournament. What intrigued me: Griffin is generally a solid ball forward, but this year he improved his short game.
After losing shots around the green before, Griffin has won five consecutive events while earning shots in his last three. What could be an advantage: Griffin is only a positive putter on the Bermuda greens. Although Innisbrook is overseeded with Poa Trivialis, the Bermuda grass could emerge from dormancy, as we saw last week in the Players Championship.
Top 40 +110
Top 20 +375
Top 10 +600
Top 5 +1200
To win +8000
This is a message of appreciation from North Carolina. The Raleigh native turned pro last year. The truth is, that’s a bit of a dart considering we only got stroke data from an event he played at the Honda Classic in February as a qualifier. It was a good tournament for him, finishing fourth in solo, gaining seven strokes with his irons and nearly 2.5 strokes with his putter. Although there was little data, Gerard followed it up with a T11 in Puerto Rico, after earning a spot to play with his top 10 the previous week. In a weaker field like this, I’m willing to take a flier on someone who is potentially a little hot, since his last tournament on the Korn Kerry Tour was a T3 in early February. Continue the sequence!
Top 20 +280
Top 10 +450
Top 5 +900
To earn +5500
The Frenchman has two titles this year on the Euro Tour, having won shots with the ball in his last three contested tournaments while winning shots with the flat stick. Considered another dart, Perez hasn’t played in the United States since the US Open in June. His last top 20 in the United States was the June 2021 Players Championship. Perez shows consistency no matter where he plays, making him an attractive option for the Top 40, or the Top 20 if you feel at risk.